This is a sample article featured in the May 2006 issue of Quadrant

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    Over the last forty years the Christian church in the UK has faced unremitting decline, with most denominations seeing their attendance more than halved. People are now seriously asking the question, which, if any, of the mainstream denominations will survive the next forty years? Considering that the number of church buildings has not declined in step with attendance, the immediate future of churches with few members and no minister, struggling towards extinction, appears ominous. What can help avoid this fate?

Mathematical Modelling
Mathematics can’t save a church from extinction but it can give insights into mechanisms of church growth and indicate problem areas. Using ideas from the modelling of epidemics, and computer simulation, principles can be developed that govern growth and decline.
Churches grow because Christians spread the gospel and see unbelievers converted. Such Christians, the enthusiasts, act like the carrier of a disease (a healthy one in this case!), which they pass on to unbelievers, seeing them come to faith in Jesus Christ. Although only a minority of Christians are such enthusiasts the ability of the church to grow depends critically on how well such enthusiasts reproduce themselves. That is, how many converts they bring into the church who themselves become enthusiasts. This is their reproduction potential.

Tipping Points
If a church’s reproduction potential falls below a threshold, the church heads for extinction. This extinction tipping point is set by the losses from the church. If the reproduction potential exceeds a higher threshold, not only will the church survive, but it will see an increase in the number of enthusiasts and rapid growth, similar to that of a revival. This is the revival growth tipping point.

Current situation
Currently the Methodists and URC, are well below the extinction tipping point. They are not producing enough enthusiasts to survive, and even if their losses were reduced extinction will be reached well before the middle of this century. The Church of England and Roman Catholic Church are also below this extinction point but could survive if losses were substantially reduced. By contrast the New Church streams are above the revival growth tipping point, and attendance will exceed that of the Church of England by 2025 if current patterns are continued.
Computer simulations indicate that the losses from all these churches are very similar; the difference lies in their reproduction potentials. The growing churches are producing enthusiasts! This suggests that generating enthusiasts would be a better strategy than stemming losses if a church were to be tipped into growth

An Illustration
Consider attendance in the Church of England. Curve 1 in figure 1 shows its decline if things remain the same. By comparison, halving the losses from 2006 sees the church survive, although without any recovery (curve 2). The tipping point for extinction has been avoided, but the one for revival growth is still far off. If instead, the Church of England could produce enthusiasts as well as the New Churches, it starts growing again (curve 3), it is now tipped into revival growth. Generating enthusiasts has the most dramatic effect in the long term.



A cautionary note is needed here; there is a significant delay in the growth starting. It is 2020 before the church starts to grow again, and 2030 before it is back to current levels; such is the inertia in the system. Clearly the resource implications of decline need to be faced even if the church is tipped into growth and revival comes.

Renewal & Critical Mass
Increasing the reproduction potential has a drawback, as it requires more conversions per enthusiast, not easy in a society unimpressed with Christianity. However an alternative source of enthusiasts can be achieved by “re-infecting” existing believers with new life. These renewed believers swell the pool of enthusiasts in the church, making new converts and renewing Christians.
Most revivals start by the renewal of church people first. Initially the main source of enthusiasts is existing believers, but as the number of enthusiasts grows a critical mass is reached and church growth explodes. The main source of enthusiasts is now the new converts. This pattern is often seen on Alpha courses.
For example, figure 2 shows a church of 100 people in 1980 following similar decline to the Church of England (curve 1). It declines to 20 by 2050. Increasing renewal in 2006 has little effect on growth for around 30 years, but once the critical mass of enthusiasts is reached the growth is dramatic. The last 350 are added in less than 10 years!




Renewal not evangelism is the key to church growth, but patience is needed as its effects are delayed. It may be that the current growth in the New Churches, and those related to the Alpha course, is the result of the renewal of the 1970’s working through. If growth is to be sustained then that renewal would need to be pursued even more vigorously now.



 

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